At Jones Hollow Realty Group in East Islip, New York, we have observed firsthand the challenges facing the real estate market on Long Island. From escalating prices in Nassau and Suffolk Counties to the well-known burden of property taxes, the barriers to entry are significant. Today, we would like to address a concerning trend impacting many prospective millennial and Gen Z buyers: the median age for first-time homebuyers has risen to 40 years old. This milestone, once achieved in one’s late 20s or early 30s, is now deferred well into middle age, particularly in our region where affordability remains a pressing issue.
To provide context, consider the latest data from late 2025. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that, based on transactions from July 2024 to June 2025, the typical first-time buyer is now 40—up from 38 in 2024, 33 in 2021, and 29 when NAR began tracking in 1981. Historically, first-time buyers represented approximately 40% of the market prior to the 2008 recession, but this share has declined to a historic low of 21% nationwide. On Long Island, the situation is more acute, with median home prices around $600,000 in Suffolk County and exceeding $700,000 in Nassau, compounded by property tax rates of 2-3% that substantially increase monthly expenses. In our practice, we frequently encounter clients in their 30s, commuting from areas like East Islip to Manhattan, who are challenged by accumulating down payments amid student debt and rental costs comparable to mortgages.
Looking back, the median age for first-time buyers was often in the late 20s during the 1980s and 1990s—for instance, 28 in 1991—and as recently as 2010, it stood at 30. The shift can be attributed to a confluence of factors on Long Island: home prices surpassing wage growth, persistently high mortgage rates following the pandemic, and limited inventory reminiscent of peak-hour congestion on the Long Island Rail Road. Additional cost-of-living pressures, such as fuel for city commutes or premiums for properties in esteemed school districts like Huntington or Commack, further delay homeownership. Experts have described this as a “warning sign for the middle class,” and it indeed hampers market vitality, making it difficult for new families to establish themselves in communities such as Islip or Smithtown.
Clients often reference reports from sources like NBC News, which note the average age has increased from 28 a decade ago, placing significant strain on millennials managing childcare expenses alongside savings for down payments on homes in areas like Patchogue. However, perspectives vary; the American Enterprise Institute has critiqued NAR’s methodology, referencing New York Federal Reserve data indicating an average age of 36.2 and a median of 33, with limited changes since the early 2000s. NAR defends its approach, which surveys primary residence buyers directly, and based on our local experience, these figures align closely—especially considering regional factors like flood insurance for coastal properties and competition from cash buyers relocating from New York City.
This trend has also sparked political discourse, with some attributing the rise to 40 during policies of the Trump administration. Irrespective of the underlying causes, the affordability crisis is evident. That said, there is reason for optimism: market cycles have historically shifted, and with potential interest rate adjustments, increased inventory from new developments, and targeted affordability programs on the horizon, younger buyers may find more opportunities in the coming years. At Jones Hollow Realty Group, our experienced representatives understand the intricacies of the Long Island market and know precisely how to get things done—whether negotiating favorable terms, leveraging local incentives, or connecting you with trusted lenders to make your homeownership goals achievable.
We are committed to assisting clients in overcoming these obstacles, whether through identifying opportunities in more accessible areas like Brentwood or guiding them toward first-time buyer programs. Should you require support in navigating the market, please contact our East Islip office to discuss tailored strategies for achieving homeownership.
Brad Wilson, Broker